As new concepts, technologies, and vehicles are introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), the need for real-time monitoring of an increasingly complex and congested terminal airspace becomes greater. Responding to this requirement, NASA developed the Real-time, System-wide Safety Assurance (RSSA) strategic thrust area, which aims to identify and mitigate potential risk in real time. Robust Analytics has identified several significant gaps in existing analysis capabilities to support RSSA objectives, one of which being the lack of prognostic risk models that account for NAS infrastructure status.
We have been developing models to understand the relationship between equipment outages, weather, traffic, and several key risk measures. Traffic, weather, and equipment outage data from different sources are processed and integrated to predict risk events (separation based measure and TCAS alerts) under varying traffic, weather, and infrastructure status conditions. Predictive modeling is applied to estimate the probability of equipment outages, which together with weather and traffic conditions would shift the normal safe operations into different risk states. Successful implementation of this capability can help fill the gap on monitoring and predictive safety tools in the terminal area.